Oscar Predictions 2017 - summary

You ready for your cheat sheet? Here y'are:

Best Animated Feature

My Pick and Dark Horse: The Breadwinner - Nora Twomey and Anthony Leo
Winner: Coco - Lee Unkrich and Darla K. Anderson

Best Animated Short Film

Winner: Garden Party - Victor Caire and Gabriel Grapperon
Dark Horse: Dear Basketball - Glen Keane and Kobe Bryant

Best Documentary Feature

My Pick and Dark Horse: Icarus - Bryan Fogel and Dan Cogan
Winner: Faces Places - Agnès Varda, JR and Rosalie Varda

Best Documentary (Short Subject)

Winner: Edith+Eddie - Laura Checkoway and Thomas Lee Wright

Dark Horse: Heroin(e) - Elaine McMillion Sheldon and Kerrin Sheldon

Best Foreign Language Film

My Pick and Dark Horse: The Square - Sweden

Winner: A Fantastic Woman - Chile

Best Live-Action Short Film

Winner: DeKalb Elementary - Reed Van Dyk

Dark Horse: Everything else

Best Cinematography

My Pick and Winner: Roger Deakins - Blade Runner 2049

Dark Horse: Hoyte van Hoytema - Dunkirk

Best Costume Design

My Pick and Winner: Mark Bridges - Phantom Thread

Dark Horses: Jacqueline Durran - Beauty and the Beast

Best Film Editing

My Pick and Winner: Lee Smith - Dunkirk

Dark Horse: Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos - Baby Driver

Best Makeup and Hair Styling

My Pick and Winner: Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Siddick - Darkest Hour

Dark Horse: Arjen Tuiten - Wonder

Best Original Score

My Pick and Dark Horse: Jonny Greenwood - Phantom Thread

Winner: Alexandre Desplat - The Shape of Water

Best Original Song

My Pick and Dark Horse: "Mighty River" - Mudbound - Music and Lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson
Winner: "This is Me" - The Greatest Showman - Music and Lyrics by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

Best Production Design

My Pick and Winner: Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau and Jeff Melvin - The Shape of Water

Dark Horse: Dennis Gassner and Alessandra Querzola - Blade Runner 2049

Best Sound Editing

My Pick and Winner: Nathan Robitaille and Nelson Ferreira - The Shape of Water

Dark Horse: Richard King and Alex Gibson - Dunkirk

Best Sound Mixing

My Pick and Winner: Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker and Gary A Rizzo - Dunkirk

Dark Horse: Julian Slater, Tim Cave-in and Mary H. Ellis - Baby Driver

Best Visual Effects

My Pick and Winner: Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist - War for the Planet of the Apes

Dark Horse: Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould - Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Writing - Original Screenplay

My Pick and Dark Horse: Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird

Winner: Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Writing - Adapted Screeplay

My Pick and Winner: James Ivory - Call Me by Your Name

Dark Horse: Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber - The Disaster Artist

Best Supporting Actress

My Pick and Secondary Dark Horse: Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread
Winner: Allison Janney - I, Tonya

Dark Horse: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird

Best Supporting Actor

My Pick and Winner: Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project

Dark Horse: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Actor

My Pick and Dark Horse: Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread

Winner: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

Best Actress

My Pick and Dark Horse: Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water

My Other Pick and Secondary Dark Horse: Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Winner: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Director

My Pick: Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread

Winner: Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Dark Horse: Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk

Best Picture

My Pick: Phantom Thread - JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison and Daniel Lupi

Winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh
Dark Horse: The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro and J. Miles Dale


Your final tally (bold for major releases):
The Shape of Water - 4
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 3
Darkest Hour - 2
Dunkirk - 2
Blade Runner 2049 - 1
Call Me by Your Name - 1
Coco - 1
DeKalb Elementary - 1
Edith+Eddie - 1
Faces Places - 1
A Fantastic Woman - 1
The Florida Project - 1
Garden Party - 1
The Greatest Showman - 1
I, Tonya - 1
Phantom Thread - 1
War for the Planet of the Apes - 1

There doesn't seem to be any real massive success out of this lot, but I don't think it's that kind of year. The most that could happen is that Three Billboards and The Shape of Water could swap spots on the tally above, which I will try to remain calm about, because people do like both of them, I just like one of them less than most people.

I ultimately did land on Three Billboards winning Best Picture, because for the last seven years, with the exception of Birdman and The Artist, the winner in this category has not been the frontrunner in terms of nominations, nor has it won the most awards of that given year, nor has it won Best Director. It would actually be joining Argo as the winner without a nomination, which is really weirdly consistent for it to happen twice in one decade. As I said last year, the Academy does seem to favour the message movie these days, even at the expense of patting themselves on the back; Three Billboards definitely has the most blatantly modern message of all the films nominated, so it's a pretty safe bet at this point. The Shape of Water is its obvious competition, and people seem fairly evenly split on which one of those two will win. Dunkirk has the closest chance of upsetting the established order, which I would actually approve of, considering the artistic feat that it is.

Is this a year that really favours my personal opinion? I don't think so. I want it to, but it's not likely. At this point, just take what ya can. I know exactly which films I'm adding to my Blu-Ray collection - since I'm the only person in Canada who still buys those things, 'cuz I like physical property. I'm sure everyone else will know which of each of these films appeals to them. More power to them.

Have a lovely night!