Oscar Predictions 2017 - secondary categories

Alright... let's do this.  Place your bets, and remember... I may not be reliable anymore. I care no longer for my reputation, so long as something surprises me this year... in a good way... Please surprise me.

Best Animated Short Film

My pick (by default): Revolting Rhymes

Winner: Picking one at random... Garden Party

They've somehow made it harder to see most of these short films and I'm not very happy about that.  I only caught Revolting Rhymes on Netflix, and was very entertained by it, mostly because of Roahl Dahl's prose. No, I did not see Cars 3, so I did not see Lou, so I can't say anything to its quality, although I haven't seen any massive support for it. Then again, Pixar wins in this category so often that I wonder if it's just obligatory to hand them the award even before they release the short. The only other serious contender this year is the one with the strongest backlash. It's hard to imagine the Academy giving an award to Kobe Bryant after what they did to distance themselves from Harvey Weinstein. Dear Basketball may have a Disney animator and Mr. Star Wars himself John Williams, but pedigree may not help it this time. I'm just giving a shot in the dark, and I hit on a surprise nominee with frogs on the poster. I have a short attention span, and this looks pretty.

Best Documentary (Short Subject)

My Pick (by default): Heroin(e)
Winner: No friggin' clue... Heroi- Oh wait, never mind, definitely Edith+Eddie!

I very abruptly shifted gears on this one because I actually decided to read the basic synopsis of each of these nominees. Not to discredit Heroin(e), however; I found it to be very genuine and accessible, painting a very admirable portrait of the lives of several women doing their best to maintain order and safety in the drug-ridden community of Huntington, West Virginia. It's a very fine piece and easily accessible on Netflix. Here's the thing, though: Edith+Eddie... a nonagenarians interracial newly-wed couple dealing with a family crisis... That's winning! I haven't even seen it yet, but from that description, it's got everything: a discussion of current events, a sweet and likeable pair of main characters, conflict, struggle, and just a slight bit of schmaltz. The Academy loves all of those things, and since none of the nominees this year are focused on any international conflicts, we can probably bet pretty safely on this one... or Heroin(e), I don't know.

Best Live Action Short Film

Winner: And we're back to no friggin' clues, so... Oh God... DeKalb Elementary

It's about a gunman in an elementary school... That seems way too current not to win... I'm not gonna say anything more about this for fear of triggering people.

Best Sound Editing

My Pick: The Shape of Water

Winner: The Shape of Water

I'm sure you would think I'd pick Dunkirk for both the sound categories, but if we're thinking from the perspective of creating new sounds almost exclusively for a specific film, The Shape of Water takes it. This category went to Arrival last year, so I don't think it's hard to imagine another science fiction/fantasy film could take it again. Just the sound design for the Asset alone is excellent, adding to his character's sense of surprising vulnerability. Even if it's not the winner, I'm more expecting Blade Runner 2049 for this category, but I'll get back to that later. It may not be an overwhelming sound design, but if it adds to the experience and effects your feelings toward the film, it probably deserves this award.

Best Sound Mixing

My Pick: Dunkirk

Winner: Dunkirk

Okay, now we're back to the overwhelming sound design... at least once my ears stop ringing. God, this movie was LOUD!!! Which only makes sense coming from Christopher Nolan. If the man does... well, he does a lot of things well, but immersing his audience through sound is unquestionably one of his trademarks. It's the one war movie nominated in both these categories this year, which is pretty much a guarantee during any award season.

Best Original Song

1. "Mighty River" - Mudbound
2. "This Is Me" - The Greatest Showman
3. "Mystery of Love" - Call Me By Your Name
4. "Remember Me" - Coco
5. "Stand Up for Something" - Marshall

Winner: "This Is Me" - The Greatest Showman

Damnit, Diane Warren! When is it going to set in: The Academy does not reward pop songs! Rap, maybe, but not since 8 Mile and Hustle and Flow... and people actually remember "Lose Yourself". Any who, I'm torn this year between the snobby side of me and the sappy sides of me, because the top two songs are really effective for different reasons. I picked "Mighty River" as my favourite because it's the strongest composition and it makes you feel without overwhelming you with its emotions. I also appreciate "Mystery of Love", but more independent of the film and as an interesting composition rather than as something I'd listen to constantly. That said, nothing's more pleasing than a show stopping number. "This Is Me" is not my favourite song from The Greatest Showman - I'm listening to the opening number "The Greatest Show" right this minute - but this is unquestionably the show-stopping number. It's gotten into the Hollywood Foreign Press's heads, so I would expect no less from the Academy. And you know what, why not have a power anthem that people - that is to say, I - actually remember and enjoy win for once!? It's a pretty fair fight this year, though. May the best belter win.

Best Production Design

1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Dunkirk
5. Darkest Hour

Winner: The Shape of Water

I'm always a little baffled when war movies and specifically World War movies get nominated in this category, not because they don't have artistic value, but because they're so clearly playing a different game compared to everything else. Science-fiction and fantasy film have so much art direction that build on the world and reflect the character's moods and personality. Darkest Hour and Dunkirk, though... they just kinda exist. The other films make more sense, especially considering how much one of them is trying so hard. By the time I actually watched Disney's latest unnecessary remaster for the PS4 - a.k.a. the remake of Beauty and the Beast - I think I might have grown more lenient towards its designs. I still think most of the set decoration and digital characters are really over-designed, but at least they were a pretty enough diversion in a movie that didn't really add much else of value to the story. Seriously, though, how can this be anything other than The Shape of Water? The heightened colour scheme and hints at both the austerity and the ironic nostalgia for the 1960s really does shine through. Plus, it would be following in the tradition of Pan's Labyrinth if it does win, so how could they resist?

Best Costume Design

1. Phantom Thread

2. The Shape of Water
3. Victoria and Abdul
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. Darkest Hour

Winner: Phantom Thread

Guys, the film is named after an actual technique used by seamstresses! Of course it's going to win, and it abso-goddamn-lutely should!

Best Makeup and Hair Styling

1. Darkest Hour

2. Victoria and Abdul

Winner: Darkest Hour

For those of you asking, I haven't seen Wonder, because I simply was not interested at this time. Hey, I'm a college student, I don't have to be interested in everything. Otherwise... You do realize that the Asset is covered in makeup and not a costume, right? You couldn't have thrown in a 14th nomination just for niceties sake? There's nothing too spectacular about these nominees, so it's probably safest to say that Darkest Hour will probably win for making audiences temporarily forget that they were watching Gary Oldman... or maybe I was just made aware that he was playing Churchill and they simply shouldn't have revealed it in the trailers.

Best Cinematography

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Darkest Hour
5. Mudbound

Winner: Blade Runner 2049

They're not making this easier, are they? I mean they made it a lot easier to predict, but not much easier to rank these Top Three. Now, proper kudos to Rachel Morrison for being the first woman nominated in this category ever. However, from what I hear, Mudbound looks way more impressive on the big screen... I'm hope that's true, because my dinky gaming monitor did not impress me very much. Hoyte van Hoytema really excels at creating worlds with a massive scale while still keeping the characters and their experience the focus of every shot. I love how it feels like he's using as much natural light as possible to create each image also. The Shape of Water feels like such a pure del Toro film in the way Dan Laustsen's camera seems to glide fluidly through every scenario. There is barely a single static shot in that film for a very good reason... Guys, it's Roger goddamn Deakins! You know it, I know it, why are we even discussing this!? He's been passed on 13 times, the cinematography in Blade Runner 2049 is immaculate, he's going to win and he damn well deserves it! (I seem to be using more mild swears on than I usually do... I blame Daniel Day-Lewis... and homework.)

Best Film Editing

1. Dunkirk
2. Baby Driver
3. I, Tonya
4. The Shape of Water
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Winner: Dunkirk

That... is easy. It's either the film that jumps around between different days, weeks and hours, or the film that jumps around between beats, bullets and cars. You can take your pick, but I also think Lee Smith has been jibbed in this category for long enough, so I'm banking on him winning it this time.

Best Original Score

1. Phantom Thread
2. The Shape of Water

3. Dunkirk
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Winner: The Shape of Water

Oooooooh... Do I go with my gut or go with my heart? WHICH ONE IS WHICH!? This category could easily go to either of my top two picks. The other three nominees have their merits; essentially say their names - Hans Zimmer, John Williams, and Carter Burwell - and you don't have to question what each of their scores sound like, and they all seem fitting of their respective films. Even when Hans Zimmer feels more like a sound designer than a composer on Dunkirk, it just proves how much of an appropriate choice he was to mix it. Most people appear to have landed on the side of The Shape of Water as the predicted winner. Immediately, this makes sense, because Alexandre Desplat has crafted some incredibly memorable themes for that film, with all his eccentricity on display between the accordions, the more subdued atmospheric approach to action sequences, and the metal xylophones sounding just like something out of a music box. Obviously, though, I'm biased toward Phantom Thread, but seriously if you haven't heard Jonny Greenwood's near-classical work and how it perfectly matches every single sequence to a T... Guys, let me put it this way... I hate piano and violin-based scores... and not only did I not hate this particular piano and violin-based score, I was absolutely swept away by it, because it fits this particular scenario and these particular characters! There are four separate tracks on the album for this score all called 'Phantom Thread', essentially playing different renditions of the same melody line, and they all feel fresh, exciting and original!  That's how much I love this score! Take your pick, but be sure to listen to this soundtrack before you do! Listen to it and be blown away!!!

Best Visual Effects

1. War for the Planet of the Apes
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
5. Kong: Skull Island

Winner: War for the Planet of the Apes


I think we are officially in No-Brainer territory. Every other nominee in this category may look cool, beautiful, or... no, just cool or beautiful, it doesn't matter because none of them feel quite as accomplished as this last film in the wildly acclaimed reboot trilogy. I've been sceptical of the quality of the digital effects in these Planet of the Apes films for a long time, which is ironic because I am a fan of the series from a storytelling perspective. Rise was wildly entertaining and Dawn gave us a great nuanced villain in Toby Kebball's Koba, but in both films, I always felt the movement of the apes was still too fluid, too gliding, too neat to be completely convincing. They hadn't quite reached photorealism up to that point... They have now! Let me tell you what scene completely convinced me: when Caesar confronts Winter. Through the combined effort of Andy Serkis's truly powerful performance and the digital wizards, I was hooked in the scene and utterly transfixed by the drama as Winter confesses his wrongdoings. Then, at the absolute right moment, we see Caesar's half-lit face. The subtle movements, the detail, the texture, the performance, they all united, and the thought finally hit me: That's not a man with dots on his face... I'm looking at an ape! I'm looking at the real Caesar! EVERYBODY WINS EVERYTHING!!!!!

I'll see you tomorrow for some other things, okay?