Oscar Predictions 2017 - Best Picture nominees ranked

You guys know how this work: you sit back and guffaw at my contentious opinions, after which point you get to laugh at me for not predicting the right film for Best Picture because I'm ever so slightly biased against it. Well, might as well give you what you want.


Best Picture

9. Darkest Hour

I am sick of watching old British men arguing in dimly lit rooms... I just thought I'd mention that. Darkest Hour is my pick for the most Oscar bait movie in this entire lot: Second World War, a historical biopic, lots of makeup, lots of line shouting, Gary Oldman nearly disappearing into a role, but not quite because I still knew ahead of time it was Gary Oldman... It was kinda designed to be released late in the year, much like a lot of Joe Wright's prestige movies, which haven't done a lot for me outside of the divisive Atonement. That said, I cannot dismiss this movie; it's a solid interpretation of the events that led to the evacuation of Dunkirk, even though it's pretty easily outdone by the actual interpretation of the evacuation of Dunkirk, or even the interpretation of what happened after the evacuation of Dunkirk... Oh right, nobody else saw Their Finest... that's a bit unfortunate. Gary Oldman still owns his performance, for which he is easily going to win his long-awaited Best Actor award. It will be interesting to see what he has to say during his speech, that's for sure, he's rather unpredictable these days.

*** 1/2 out of *****


8. The Post

So, funny thing: as I was compiling this list... I completely forgot to include The Post until I reached my #2! Well, that doesn't seem to bode well for the film that I spent a month of binge reviewing all of its acclaimed star's previous Oscar-nominated roles. I'll actually be fair to the film as it is, because when I had finished watching it, I felt that it was a significant improvement over Spielberg's last Best Picture nominee. I felt more engaged with the characters and their dilemmas in The Post than in Bridge of Spies, which had one very fine performance going for it, and that's it. It's fairly clear that the film was made with an Academy Award nomination in mind, especially when you have the three highest gods of the American cinematic pantheons collaborating on a film that speaks to a very relevant issue. Gratefully, all three of these titans do very fine work, including the mighty Meryl Streep, whose performance is appropriately more subdued in this film than several of her previous nominations. The fact that I basically forgot this film compared to every other nominee past this point does paint a pretty clear picture of how I'll probably view it in the long run. Still, it was a pleasant enough film with a positive message about freedom of the press and making the right choice at the right time and other Spielberg-ian niceties. This is one film that your parents will certainly like, but gratefully, from where I stand, you can enjoy it too.

**** out of *****


7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I will say it now just to get it off my chest: if Three Billboards wins, and someone else has now convinced me it will, it's very likely gonna become my new Birdman. This is the kind of film where I appreciate it, I think it succeeds at stirring up people's emotions, there's good filmmaking style on display here, and the performances are uniformly very good. As I've implied earlier, though, I can't shake the feeling that Martin McDonagh was trying really hard to make a Coen Brothers movie, and I don't think he made as strong a movie as Fargo was and still is. On a more personal note, I ended up wishing that the film had made me laugh more; I'm a sucker for black comedy, but the jokes were too few and far between, buried under a lot of - I'll be fair here - righteous indignation. This film feels like a very good discussion piece, and I won't be surprised if it wins as a result. From my perspective, however, there are many films that were better, more subtle, more artful, and more complete that I enjoyed from last year. Maybe I'll rewatch it again at some point and my mind will change, that's entirely possible; however, that did not happen when I saw Birdman a second time, so I'm rather skeptical about this film.

**** out of *****

6. Call Me by Your Name

Here's one case where I think the acclaim definitely wore me down before I saw the film, as well as the mild controversy regarding age of consent. Now in this movie's defence, assuming they are taking the angle of this being a family who identifies as Italian rather than American, Italian age of consent is 14 years old, and from my perspective, if it's legal, the 7 year age gap doesn't seem that dramatic to me. What does seem pretty dramatic for me - or undramatic, I should say - is how generally slow the film is. It's gorgeously shot and well-written with strongly realized and realistic characters... but it can get pretty boring. The music can also be kinda jarring at times, with the flighty Oscar-nominated indie songs playing in the middle of a scenario that doesn't seem very fitting. Still, the well realized characters are the real draw here, and they're wonderfully performed by Timothée Chalamet, Armie Hammer, and especially Michael Stuhlbarg, who should have been nominated for something this year. Maybe he shouldn't have stopped at three movies, he should have starred in all nine of the Best Picture nominees, then they'd be impressed.

**** out of *****

5. Dunkirk

I'm basically gonna start repeating myself at this point, but I do want to emphasize that Dunkirk is absolutely worthy of the praise that it has gotten. It's the most audacious war film to come out in many decades, probably since The Thin Red Line and Saving Private Ryan changed the public's perception of the Second World War. Dunkirk succeeds in a very different way, one that is almost entirely cinematic and is extremely visceral as a result. Christopher Nolan has challenged himself with this film and he took that challenge full on. The film does not have quite the same emotional impact than his previous films, nor is it utterly flawless. Still, when the pros overpower the cons so profoundly, you can't help but sweat in your seat as the German planes bombard you from above. It is just that daunting.

**** 1/2 out of *****

4. The Shape of Water

You know it just dawned on me: maybe The Shape of Water and Dunkirk actually balance each other out for me. Dunkirk stands as an unique statement of a director changing his style, but it also works best when experienced in the moment. The Shape of Water feels more like a director very confidently stepping back into his wheel house, but fashioning it into a film that resonates with you emotionally long afterwards. I still have great affection for this film and what its character relationships had to offer. Sublime performances and stunning production design come together to create this beautiful but also frightening world. Sally Hawkins should unquestionably win Best Actress, even if I don't get to see Margot Robbie standing beside her. There is so much emotional depth to the experience of seeing this film and revisiting it several times. I can't help but celebrate this tribute to the outcasts of society in the form of an interspecies romance.

**** 1/2 out of *****

3. Lady Bird

Ronan's amazing, Metcalf's wonderful, Gerwig's made an awesome debut and should win Best Original Screenplay, you get the picture.

***** out of *****

2. Get Out

Kaluuya's awesome, the script is tight and intense, Jordan Peele's got a long career ahead of him, and other affirmative things.

***** out of *****

1. Phantom Thread

I just watched it for the third time... I'm still not bored of singing this film's praises! I can't stop finding new things I admire about Paul Thomas Anderson's work and the performances every time I see the film; there isn't a single needless scene, shot, edit, soundtrack, or line of dialogue in the entire runtime. I find so much more to admire in the way that the relationship at its centre subverts expectations, creating a wonderfully intense dynamic between Vicky Krieps and Daniel Day-Lewis. To that end, I've never really talked about how beautifully shot the film is. Just looking at the heavy use of close-ups throughout made me realize something the third time I saw it: this may be Anderson's most intimate film! So it shouldn't be surprising that the reason why there's no Director of Photography credit at the end of this film is because Anderson himself is the one operating the camera! I'm officially a lifelong fan of Anderson; I jumped on the band wagon late, but he's unquestionably one of the most unpredictable, unconventional auteurs of our time. I'll miss Day-Lewis if this is his last film, I look forward to seeing Krieps moving forward, I want Manville to be in every movie ever - okay, every great movie that comes out from here on end, I don't want her career spoiled - I wish everyone on this film the best of luck at the Oscars. And thank you. For everything.

***** out of *****

I am seriously differing from most other people's average ranking this year. I don't quite know what it is that has made Three Billboards soar so high among audiences; hardly anybody saw In Bruge, so it's not prior exposure to Martin McDonagh... I guess it is this image of Middle America that people don't find too far from the truth. It's a difficult film for some people, including me, but I guess I shouldn't really begrudge its success within a certain audience. I'll try to rewatch it at some point to know for sure. The two films that do seem fairly consistent in their rankings this year are Dunkirk and Call Me by Your Name, which seems pretty fair. One was such a brutal, visceral experience, while the other was so quietly powerful in its depiction of a sincere romance. I am kind of baffled by how much the audiences have turned on Get Out and Lady Bird. Is it the critical acclaim that's pushing them back, or are they just trolling us with their faux dislike of anything related to women or minorities? They deserve better. Hey, The Shape of Water is ranked 6th on all of these lists, has that ever happened when I did this before!? It's certainly a film that really needs you to indulge its combination of all thing horrific and romantic at once, so this makes sense. I'm also not too disappointed with where Phantom Thread ranks, at least on IMDb and Metacritic. I don't put as much weight on the Tomatometer rating as much as other people do, so it is what it is. This will be interesting to see who the Academy agrees with this year. (Probably not me, but I can dream, can't I?)

IMDb - (only the #1 in Top 250)

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 8.3/10

2. Call Me by Your Name - 8.1/10

3. Dunkirk - 8/10

4. Phantom Thread - 7.8/10

5. Get Out - 7.7/10
6. The Shape of Water - 7.7/10

7. Lady Bird - 7.6/10

8. Darkest Hour - 7.4/10
9. The Post - 7.3/10

Rotten Tomatoes - (Confusing Golden Tomato scores seriously throwing it off this time)

1. Get Out - 99%
2. Dunkirk - 93%

3. Lady Bird - 99%

4. Call Me by Your Name - 96%

5. Three Billboards, Outside Ebbing Missouri - 92%
6. The Shape of Water - 92%

7. Phantom Thread - 91%

8. The Post - 88%
9. Darkest Hour - 86%

Metacritic
1. Dunkirk - 94/100

2. Lady Bird - 94/100

3. Call Me by Your Name - 93/100

4. Phantom Thread - 90/100

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 88/100
6. The Shape of Water - 87/100

7. Get Out - 84/100
8. The Post - 83/100
9. Darkest Hour - 75/100