Saturday, 3 March 2018

Oscar Predictions 2017 - major categories

Quick update before we move on to this section:

I'm going to be live tweeting throughout the entire Oscar Ceremony. Follow me @daskyethor for my very opinionated opinions about each win... Okay, I'll try to be fair if they pick someone I disagree with.

Now, moving on.


Best Foreign Language Film
1. The Square
2. On Body and Soul

Winner: A Fantastic Woman

I've heard a lot of praise heaped onto A Fantastic Woman, one of the latest films to feature LGBT subject matter which the Academy is prone to admire. It will probably be a toss up between that and The Square, which I already mentioned as a runner-up for my favourite films of the year. That film has so much traction in this race because of its Palme d'Or win at Cannes... and I don't have any other comment at all. Moving on...


Best Documentary Feature
1. The first half of Icarus
2. Last Men in Aleppo
3. Strong Island

Winner: Face Places

It's a bit weird, but I haven't finished watching Icarus yet. That's entirely on me, because of late, I have found feature-length documentaries in general to be less than my cup of tea. I should be more interested in them because of my education, but I often feel like I don't want to spend two hours reminding myself of reality. What I have seen of Icarus, however, is very engaging, especially when it focuses on the very literal 'character' of Grigory Rodchenkov, the former anti-doping expert turned whistleblower. I could have done without the fake Orwell quote at the beginning, but that's just one problem. (I will update this post once I've seen the entire film.) Last Men in Aleppo does have one thing going for it, which is the controversy of the producers just barely getting a travel visa just to attend the Oscars because of current U.S. policies. The film follows in the footsteps of last year's Documentary Short winner The White Helmets, but it benefits from being directed by a Syrian, Feras Fayyad, and it does not shy away from showing very graphic imagery for the sake of realism. Two very worthy films, two fine dark horses... pitted against my biggest regretful miss of the year! I really wanted to see Faces Places before now, but the fates would not have it be so. I hope that Agnès Varda and JR will tolerate my insolence for one more week as I sing their praises when they win this award.


Best Animated Feature
1. The Breadwinner
2. Loving Vincent
3. Coco

Winner: Coco

No, I'm not a heartless bastard... I'm merely very tough to please. Coco is a lovely, heartfelt, visually wondrous and emotionally moving animated film about family legacy, respect for your ancestors and embracing of a very different aspect of Mexican culture... for about 80% of its runtime. The other 20% - the 20% at the front of the film - is the most formula animated movie I've seen all year. The kid wants something. The family does not want him to have that something. The kid tries to do that something anyway. The family punishes him for doing that something by some blatant act of violence that severs his tie to that something. The kid runs away to pursue that something... and then finally ends up in the afterlife, where the real greatness of this film abides. I apologize if I insulted the fans of this film ever so slightly, your love for it is entirely justified... Just let me have my under-appreciated animated masterpieces, okay!? Loving Vincent is astounding on a technical level, and its art may sell the film more than the narrative or staging, but at least for me, its visual beauty also translated to emotional beauty. It felt so right to tell the story of Van Gogh through his art style, and it's a spectacular film I hope to see many times again. And The Breadwinner, obviously, is one of my favourite films from 2017 and is easily one of the most thematically challenging with its depiction of Afghan culture, the Taliban, and the innocents who try to live in their midst. Both of these are just as worthy of this as Coco is, and I certainly won't begrudge Coco winning, at least for the other 80% that I loved. I would love a surprise here, but I'm not banking on it.


Best Writing - Original Screenplay
1. Lady Bird
2. Get Out
3. The Big Sick
4. The Shape of Water
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Hmm... Which script should I say I admire the least? The one that takes more than a few hints from the director's previous masterpieces... or the one that's so obviously trying to be a Coen Brothers movie, but only comes across as a lesser film because of it? I really wanted to say that any other film was going to win in this category, but speaking with one of my friends ultimately made me nut up to the probability that Three Billboards is going to win. It is socially relevant, if rather messy in its approach, and it may not be a film that I am personally inclined toward, but I'll take one for the team. I really do think that the other three nominees are superior in this category. I appreciate The Big Sick for presenting an extremely unconventional rom-com story with a lot of heart and some pretty satisfying laughs. I've raved about Get Out's blending of genre and equally relevant social commentary/satire. And Lady Bird, my initial predicted winner for this category, is a film that speaks to a wide range of teenage experiences without being hokey, twee, or light; it's the most sincere and well realized teen drama I've seen in... forever. I will say this: given that she's not likely to win Best Director, the Writers' branch may decide to give this award to Greta Gerwig as compensation. She definitely deserves it, she made a lovely movie, I hope they can upset me, because if they do, there's still a chance that Three Billboards will get less traction in the end race.


Best Writing - Adapted Screenplay
1. Call Me By Your Name
2. The Disaster Artist
3. Mudbound
4. Logan
5. Molly's Game

Winner: Call Me By Your Name

Now do not let my ranking convince you that I dislike any one of these screenplays. These are all well written scripts and given their competition, it's the best line-up you could get in a pretty weak year for adaptations. I have quibbles with each one of the lower ones on this list: Molly's Game and Mudbound have more narration than I would have liked, and Logan as boundry-breaking as it is, I only find the protagonists to be really compelling while the villains, save for a certain clone of someone, feel like they're just kinda there. That said, I've bounced around the major contenders so often in this category, especially in regards to The Disaster Artist. So on top of the accusations made against Franco, now there's a new lawsuit in place where the original screenwriter for that film may have been underpaid, which seems decidedly unfair. Is the script that we now have great? I would say so, but I'm torn on whether I would give it to the film when that kind of an accusation is made against it. I think we can all agree that it's not very likely to win anyway. The Academy loves James Ivory; his period dramas were wild successes in the 80s and 90s, now he's actually written the script for Call Me By Your Name and it really is a fine piece. It deserves to win almost solely because of the speech given by Michael Stuhlbarg near the end of the film, a speech that should speak to every person of every orientation. I may not have related to the movie as a whole, but I admire that aspect of it more than anything else.


Best Supporting Actress
1. Lesley Manville
2. Laurie Metcalf
3. Alison Janney
4. Mary J. Blige
5. Octavia Spencer

Winner: Alison Janney for I, Tonya

Oh, I would love to see an upset here... then again, I won't be disappointed if any of my top three picks won this award. The only performer that seems a little out of place here is Octavia Spencer; although I liked her in The Shape of Water, she is still playing into a type that she does well enough in, but is not really building on anything she's done before. Janney is the current frontrunner, for very good reason; what a marvellously despicable character is LaVona Fay Golden, while also being incredibly lively and sardonically funny. Metcalf has probably the most varied performance in terms of how she interacts with Saoirse Ronan's Lady Bird, whether it be doting, condescending, loving, agitated, understanding or heartbroken. Of course, you know by now that I can't get enough of Manville; her quiet command of every scene in Phantom Thread is marvellous. Even when faced with such a self-centred ass of a brother, she's somehow always in control. She has the authority and the foresight to know everything that needs to be said at the absolute opportune time, which is more than awesome and GOD, why wasn't this movie nominated for Original Screenplay!? Just give it to Janney... or Manville, if I haven't annoyed you enough.


Best Supporting Actor
1. Willem Dafoe
2. Christopher Plummer
3. Richard Jenkins
4. Woody Harrelson
5. Sam Rockwell

Winner: Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project

I'm goin' against the grain, people! I know most are betting on Rockwell in Three Billboards, a performance that is not undeserving of a nomination, but is far and away the least interesting of the lot, in my opinion. He has the one scene that everyone remembers in the form of an unbroken shot, but I don't see as much depth to the character or the performance. Harrelson is a great deal more nuanced, for reasons that you learn about around the midpoint in the film. If I was to rewatch the film, I would probably want to keep my eyes squarely on Harrelson and be content with it. To be fair, my 2-4 could have been in any order and it would have been pretty accurate. I'm tempted to go on a diatribe about the casting process in All the Money in the World, but for now, I'll just settle on Plummer's presence here not being a stunt nomination, but a really worthy and spectacular example of his work. We really do need more Christopher Plummer in everything. But you know me: I love Dafoe, he's been nominated twice before, he should have won something by now, plus he's in his 60s,  so this would count as both a legacy win and an absolutely worthy win for his work in The Florida Project. Once again, it's a varied performance on an emotional level, especially in his interaction with the children, whom he cares for despite being an absolute nuisance and just so difficult to control. I remember so many of his scenes based on the emotions I felt for his character. He deserves to win, he should win... he will win. Fight me!


Best Actor
1. Daniel Day-Lewis
2. Daniel Kaluuya
3. Gary Oldman
4. Timothée Chalamet

Winner: Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour

I know. He doesn't need a fourth one. I don't care, because he's the best, and it's presumably his last role, and I like saying is name over and over and over again. Daniel Day-Lewis, Daniel Day-Lewis, Daniel Kaluuya- whoops, happy accident! There are a lot of thing that put each of these performances at something of an advantage in this category; Kaluuya has the audience's empathy throughout the entire movie, Chalamet does fine work as a kind of male counterpart to Ronan's performance in Lady Bird - ironic, since he actually appeared in both films - and Daniel Day-Lewis... see, I couldn't help myself. There's no need for an excuse. Let's be real here: This category was locked once they wrote up the cast list on Darkest Hour's Wikipedia page. Initially, I had Oldman at the bottom of my list, but I ended up switching because I still remember Oldman's Churchill more and was arguably more impressed by it. Just because Chalamet gives a quieter performance does not mean I remember him as much as Oldman's somewhat flashy but still nearly seamless performance. The one scene that is dividing people the most, the subway scene, is actually the point where I turned around to appreciating the film and Oldman's performance more. It's the one scene in a bombastic film about old men shouting at Oldman - only slightly accidental joke there - where we get to see Churchill settle into a certain mood and feel like someone that the audience could connect with and admire. It may not be his most subdued performance, nor the one that people will remember the most, but it is fine work to earn him a very fine legacy award.


Best Actress
1. Sally Hawkins & Margot Robbie
3. Saiorse Ronan
4. Frances McDormand & Meryl Streep

Winner: Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I want that tie so damn much! No, not the one at #4, they've got what they deserved for playing much better characters in much better movies - I'll give you my review of The Post sooner or later, I promise. Let's be real here: as cliché as it is to give this award to the young rising star because they're young and their star is rising... any of the three actresses who have not won an Oscar yet deserve to win one this year because they're great and awesome and they deserve the career boost. (By the way, yes, Hawkins is an established actress with a diverse career, I'm just using that statement to make a point.) Frances McDormand may be a favourite to win this year and she gives a good performance as a steely determined woman in a good movie, but that's nothing compared to her great performance as an energetic but emotionally diverse character in a great movie that I think this good movie is trying so hard to be. Hawkins did so much more in five minutes of her physical performance than most other actresses do in two hours of straight up talking. Robbie imbued Tonya Harding with a sense of empathy that was unexpected without sacrificing any of her talents as a comedienne. And I've nattered about Ronan a fair bit already; thanks to Gerwig's very heartfelt writing and her own versatility, she proves once again that she gets better with every new performance. If any of those three actresses wins this award, I'll stand and applaud for them because they deserve it. If McDormand wins, which she is likely to, I'll shrug it off. If Streep wins... I'll let you imagine what my response is.


Best Director
1. Paul Thomas Anderson
2. Christopher Nolan
3. Guillermo del Toro
4. Jordan Peele
5. Greta Gerwig

Winner: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water

So, I love this entire line-up. I've already established that. They're either ingenious auteurs with great work behind them or some of the most exciting first-time directors of our current era. It seems obvious that I'm showing some bias based on how well established these directors are, but keep in mind I am coming at this category based on how much I think the director's style helps tell the story and how confident that style is at this time in their career. Gerwig, I would give a writing award to, Peele I would give an Oscar for Best Directorial Debut. But now, with the three veterans, you may notice something weird: if Dunkirk's not on my Top Ten of 2017, why is Nolan above del Toro on this stand? Because Dunkirk is perhaps the boldest statement of Nolan's career and the greatest deviation from his typical style. The sparse dialogue, the sound design, the cinematography, the editing, it's all meticulous and so vasty different from anything Nolan has done before without becoming alienating. I love del Toro's work as a director, he did an exceptional job with The Shape of Water, and when he wins that Oscar, finally bringing the Three Amigos together in Oscar glory, I will be very happy. I'll probably be just slightly happier, however, if he gets nominated again for a different film that's even more of a stretch for him as a filmmaker. I guess that's why Anderson becomes more impressive with every new film, and why I personally think he should win. If he does, I would probably die of the shock, but maybe don't count on that happening. I intend to live a long time so that I can make my own films, each one different from the next... except probably featuring a majority of female leads. I do like those...


I shall return promptly with my ranking of the Best Picture nominees, with my final summary of each category following soon after that.

No comments:

Post a Comment